As of 17:00 Eastern Time on July 29, 2025, the exchange rate of bitcoin to cad was reported at CAD 11,724.85. It rose by 3.2% in the past 24 hours, with an intraday fluctuation of 9.3%. After hitting a low of CAD 11,150, it rebounded rapidly to a high of CAD 11,980. Technical indicators show a key breakthrough: The Bollinger Bands have narrowed to 0.5%, the 30-minute K-line has broken through the resistance level of the 200-period moving average at 11,560 Canadian dollars, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has risen from 38 to 61, and the MACD bar chart of the momentum indicator has turned positive, suggesting the establishment of a short-term upward trend. The derivatives market validated the upward trend. The premium of Deribit’s Bitcoin quarterly futures rose to 3.8%, and the open interest on BitMEX soared by 22% to 5.2 billion Canadian dollars.
Macro policies have driven significant growth. Statistics Canada announced this morning that the CPI in June rose by 3.1% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 2.8%. In response, the Canadian dollar depreciated by 0.8% against the US dollar. Historical data shows that a 1% depreciation of the Canadian dollar typically drives bitcoin to cad to rise by 1.5-2% intraday, as local investors increase their allocation of crypto assets to hedge against inflation. The on-chain monitoring platform CryptoQuant has captured a key signal: The BTC reserves of the Canadian exchange Bitbuy have seen a net outflow of 870 units (worth 10.2 million Canadian dollars) in the past five hours, while the increase in holdings by local wallet addresses during the same period has increased by 45% month-on-month, reflecting an accelerated entry of retail investors. The Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision has become the focus. The overnight index swap pricing indicates that the probability of a rate hike in September has jumped from 35% to 58%. If it is implemented, it may trigger a short-term pullback.
Regulatory incidents have triggered structural fluctuations. The Canadian Financial Transactions Reporting Centre (FINTRAC) issued new regulations last night, requiring exchanges to report single Bitcoin transfers exceeding CAD 10,000. The Coincub Compliance Risk Index shows that the regulatory cost of the Canadian exchange has increased by 15% monthly, and the single-layer thickness of the Bitfinex platform bitcoin to cad order book has sharply decreased by 40%. Historical lessons can be learned: When Canada implemented the crypto Asset Trading Reporting System (CATP) in August 2023, it led to a 12% single-day plunge in Bitcoin. Current on-chain data warning: The net outflow of giant whale accounts (>1000 BTC) within 24 hours reached 4,200, setting a new three-month high.
Supported by both technical and on-chain fundamentals, the hash rate of the Bitcoin network has reached 620 EH/s (up 5% month-on-month), and the median transaction fee has remained stable at CAD 1.35. Glassnode data shows that the proportion of addresses holding coins for more than one year has reached 68% (historical peak), and the stock of exchanges has dropped to a five-year low of 8.3% of the total supply. Intraday trading strategies should be wary of the volatility trap: The current 1-hour volatility index has soared to 89%, and the BitMEX clearing map shows that there are short stop-loss orders worth 38 million Canadian dollars in the range of 11,500 to 11,700 Canadian dollars. If triggered, it may lead to a short squeeze. Technical analysis models show that if the Fibonacci resistance level of CAD 11,900 is effectively broken through, the short-term target could be CAD 12,400, but the risk of covering the gap in CME futures in the New York session (CAD 11,240) needs to be watched out for.